By Steve Davidowitz
From what I saw in 2011, there were a few dozen young horses who acted the part of serious prospects for the 2012 Triple Crown races. No doubt there will be many more before we get to the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.
As usual, some of the best I saw last year are trained by who else—Bob Baffert, the southern Cal based trainer with white hair locks and a bunch of wins in Triple Crown races during his Hall of Fame career. While it is early to be citing any individual horse as the horse to beat in the 1-1/4 mile Derby, three of Baffert’s young horses caught my eye in the fall of 2011 and will deserve close attention during the next several months. Yet, as we begin 2012, it seems only fair to take a good look at the three horses who dominated the $2 million, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, Nov. 5.
HANSEN, the undefeated son of Tapit, who scored a wire to wire win in the 1-1/16 mile BC Juvenile, is bred well enough to succeed at true distance races. But as good as that performance was, it is rare when a precocious, front running horse continues to develop sufficiently to be a true Derby horse. In my lifetime, the only horse who managed to do that was the great SEATTLE SLEW, a front running terror at 2 in 1976 who became a horse for the ages at 3, sweeping the 1977 Triple Crown. (Seattle Slew was such a freak in the most complimentary use of that word, he was even better as a 4 year old even though a serious infection during the winter almost ended his life.
Second place finisher UNION RAGS, whose only defeat was in the BC Juvenile, ran an enterprising race that day, going wide on both turns. But could not pass Hansen through the final 1/4 miles. Moreover, as a son of Dixie Union, Union Rags seems best suited to 1-1/16 miles more than classic distances.
Third place finisher, CREATIVE CAUSE might be the best of this trio to follow. A son of distance loving Giant’s Causeway, Creative Cause won a pair of Graded stakes in 2011, including the G-1, 1-1/16 mile Norfolk on dirt at Santa Anita Park and might turn out to be stronger the further he goes.
As stated, it is next to impossible to accurately project which 3 year olds will be the horses worth following on the Triple Crown chase during the next few months. But for now, here three of many promising Baffert youngsters worth keeping in mind.
While many might believe that Baffert’s #1 Derby prospect is LIAISON, winner of the $750,000 Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Dec. 17, I believe he is just one of several Baffert 3 year olds who could be in the mix. Moreover, he is not personal favorite at this point.
True, Liaison is hard to fault, having won three of four to date including two stakes and a dirt sprint at Santa Anita to suggest that the racing surface will not be an issue. He also is bred well enough to handle longer distances, getting stamina from his mama, a daughter of Belmont stakes winner Victory Gallop.
SECRET CIRCLE is another interesting colt, whose status might be compromised by minor injuries or other rumored setbacks. But there still is time.
Secret Circle did not begin his career until July 23 at Del Mar, but showed his class winning the inaugural BC Juvenile Sprint, Nov 4. At the bottom line, Baffert believes this son of Eddington will handle longer distances as he matures this winter. Yet, I personally believe that Baffert’s best Derby prospect is a colt who has won only once in four starts.
I really like SKY KINGDOM’s chances to become a bona fide Grade-1 colt who will relish classic distances. First of all, he is by Empire Maker, the 2002 Belmont Stakes winner. Second, he has improved in each of his four career starts and that includes his troubled fourth place finish behind Liaison in the Cash Call.
For the Triple Crown chase, I like slowly developing horses with stamina in their pedigrees and I like horses who improve gradually through a succession of startswhen they are learning the game. This is one colt that is going to take a major forward move sometime during the winter and when he does, watch out.
Beyond all of this, let me wish all horseplayers a Happy New Year and all North American Thoroughbreds a Happy Birthday. As many of you probably know, every Northern Hemisphere Thoroughbred advances one year in age on Jan 1.
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